The multiplication of the number of applications raises the question of the saturation of a market that, since its creation, has only experienced peaks. Indeed, some indicators seem to indicate a change of direction: are we heading towards a halt in growth, or even towards a crisis in the application market?

A threat of saturation of the mobile application market

Between 2009 and 2015, the number of applications published each month on the stores increased by more than 10, from 4,500 to 50,000. At the same time, the average number of ratings per application was divided by 16. In 2009, an application was rated around 4,000 times, while in 2015, applications accumulated an average of only 250 ratings!

The number of ratings gives us an approximation of the average number of downloads per application. We download them less, so we rate them less.

Also over the same period, there was a significant decrease in the time spent between the launch and the abandonment of an application project (from 2 years to 3 months) and a significant increase in the number of abandoned applications (no updates over 6 months) with more than 1.5 million effective failures in 2015. To solve this problem, Apple launched a major cleaning of the App Store in September 2016, which aims to remove abandoned or inactive apps and therefore to clarify the offer for users.

In summary, we have more and more applications on the stores, but they are less and less rated, and they are abandoned sooner and massively. All of these trends have made the App Store the graveyard of the hopes and dreams of app developers.

Moreover, Apple's desire to increase its commission from 30 to 15% in 2017 may be a disguised admission of the difficulties that app creators face today, unable to generate as much revenue as before.

Thus, even if the applications used by mobile users can generally be counted on the fingers of one hand, forecasts predict 5 million applications on the App Store by 2020 (vs 2 million in 2015), with growth by category that should follow current trends:

Unused mobile applications

A comScore study from August 2014 states that 65% of smartphone users download 0 applications per month, while only 25% download between 1 and 3 applications per month, and 10% download more than 4 applications per month.

But these figures are questioned by Tune, which states in its own report that 75% of smartphone users download at least one application per month (with a “teenager” segment downloading 6.3 on average).

Beyond downloads, another problem awaits application developers: that of use. According to a study by SurveyMonkey, the 5 most used applications in 2016 were Facebook, YouTube, Messenger, Google Maps, and the Play Store. The most downloaded are Messenger, Snapchat, Instagram, and Color Switch. In addition, 40% of the most used applications are those that are embedded directly on the smartphone.

This means that developers are competing not only with applications on the App Store (2 million currently), but also with those that are already installed on phones.

The booming mobile app sector

However, some indicators contradict those who prophesy the end of the golden age of applications:

• applications now represent 52% of the time spent on digital media (vs 40% in 2013), more than traditional and mobile websites combined
• Users spent 4 billion dollars in 2009, compared to 35 billion in 2015 (+775%) on Stores and in-app purchases
• On average, each user spent 11 euros in 2012 on blinds, compared to 23 euros in 2015
• There have been 140 billion cumulative downloads since the creation of the App Store (2008) and 65 billion for Google Play (since 2012)
• The App Store is growing continuously and now has 2 million applications
• Same for Google Play with 2.2 million applications in July 2016
• Apple has 13 million developers using its platforms, including 2 million newcomers in 2015

In other words, these opposite trends illustrate that the problem is not the number of applications currently published, but the way in which they are made: are we addressing a real customer need? Or are we simply copying an existing app?

The rules of the mobile app industry are changing

The reduction of barriers to entry into the field of applications has created an environment conducive to competition and the explosion of innovations. As a result, we can expect to have applications of a much higher quality than those that currently exist. The idea that apps are just programs with limited functionality is disappearing.

Another important evolution: applications are no longer simply considered as “mobile brands” by companies that want to strengthen their digital presence. Now, they are seen as critical to improving consumer acquisition and engagement, and therefore as real drivers of growth.

This is where the difficulty lies: creating an application is within the reach of many development agencies, but determining the form that application will take to perfectly meet the needs of users is much more difficult.

The biggest risk for an application project leader today is not to confront your market quickly, for not integrating user tests into its development process, and finally, for not succeeding in distinguishing itself from the millions of existing applications once on the stores. Hence the need to adopt a rapid confrontation with the end user when designing an application, and to apply the principles of agile development from the beginning of the project and at least until the launch of the product.